SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states today and parts of California mainly late tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over CA this morning will move east-northeastward across the Great Basin/Southwest today while acquiring a negative tilt. Although low-level moisture will remain quite limited, cool temperatures and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft associated with the upper trough/low may support convection deep enough to generate occasional lightning flashes across parts of the Four Corners states into WY. A separate upper trough will approach the West Coast late tonight, with large-scale ascent associated with a strong mid-level jet overspreading parts of CA. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/ahead of a cold front tonight through early Monday morning across this area. For all regions, weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe thunderstorms, although gusty winds may occur with the stronger cores. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/16/2025
