SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the southern Plains on Wednesday evening into early Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, mid-level ridging will be present across much of the eastern CONUS. A low-latitude trough will move slowly east across the Southwest and start to emerge across the southern High Plains by the end of the period. ...Southern Plains... Instability will increase during the day Wednesday as rich low-level moisture advects northwestward across Texas. By 00Z, the primary trough will start to emerge over the southern Plains with height falls spreading east, a strengthening low-level jet, and upper-level diffluence above a surface front. This increasing forcing, especially after 00Z, should result in scattered thunderstorm activity from the Rio Grande to the Red River from the Edwards Plateau to north-central Texas. Despite the unfavorable overnight timing, some severe weather is possible given moderate instability and shear combined with moderate to strong forcing for ascent. ...Southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico... Strong heating is expected across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico Wednesday afternoon with weak instability forecast to develop. A few strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds may develop within a strongly sheared environment during the afternoon. At this time, instability appears too weak for severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 11/17/2025
