Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Nov 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move onto the West Coast on Wednesday. As the trough moves inland, thunderstorm development will be possible near the coast of northern California, Oregon and Washington. The mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward into the central Plains on Thursday, and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday. From Thursday afternoon into Friday, thunderstorms will be possible from eastern parts of the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture return and the resultant instability is expected to be somewhat limited, suggesting the severe potential will remain minimal. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to quickly take shape over the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley, where thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Saturday night. Model forecasts suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place, which would support a severe threat from Saturday afternoon and evening. Concerning the potential for a severe weather event, uncertainty is substantial. Some solutions suggest that the favorable environment for severe will remain spatially focused into a small area, and that a front could undercut the convection. For this reason, will keep the forecast at "predictability too low". On Sunday, the system is forecast to move eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an isolated severe threat will be possible across parts of the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. However, uncertainty concerning the potential for severe storms is considerable at this range.
