SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe storms are not expected today. ...Northeast States... A progressive shortwave trough will modestly amplify as it steadily progresses east-southeastward over the Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec through tonight. Strengthening deep-layer winds will accompany this trough as a cold front also advances east-southeastward regionally. While seasonably cool temperatures will be prevalent, cooling mid-level temperatures and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will support increasing low-topped convection near the pre-frontal trough/front from mid-afternoon into this evening across upstate New York, and potentially into parts of northern New England. Some of this convection will probably be deep enough and thermodynamically conducive for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. Some stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts may also occur given 35-45 kt winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL. But current thinking is that organized severe potential should remain low given the marginal thermodynamic environment. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/03/2025
