SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Tue Nov 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes may accompany low-topped storms along the California and Oregon coasts early Wednesday morning. Organized severe storms are not expected. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect trends in recent high-res guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Stable conditions will prevail across the majority of the CONUS as surface high pressure persists across the Southeast and a surface low/cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. The only exception is along the southern OR and northern CA coasts. Here, a shortwave trough rotating through the base of a larger cyclone is expected to approach the region early tomorrow morning. Strong forcing for ascent and related cooling mid-level temperatures could result in some deeper convective cores within the frontal band preceding the shortwave. Some of these may briefly be deep enough to produce sporadic lightning along the immediate coast.
