SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Nov 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Friday afternoon to evening, from parts of the Deep South to the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough which will dominate the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Friday will have several embedded shortwave troughs. The most notable of these will be a mid-level trough across the Ohio Valley with an associated cold front extending from the southern Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday afternoon. ...TN/KY into far southern Ohio... Weak instability may develop on the northern periphery of the advancing warm sector across TN/KY and southern Ohio during the day. NAM forecast soundings show at least marginal surface based instability to the Ohio River with at least some potential that it extends farther north. While instability will not be great in this region, strong lower tropospheric flow will support some damaging wind threat with any organized storms. The greatest coverage and intensity of severe storms is anticipated across Middle Tennessee and vicinity where pockets of moderate instability may develop within a supercell wind profile. As height falls overspread the cold front/warm sector, expect storms, including some supercells, to develop. Long, straight hodographs will primarily support hail and wind, but some localized areas of low-level backed flow could support an isolated tornado threat. Greater instability (moderate to potentially strong) is forecast to develop across central MS/AL during the afternoon. Forcing will be more subtle that far south, but weak height falls may be sufficient for a few storms to develop within an uncapped airmass Friday afternoon. Moderate (35 to 40 knots) effective shear will support supercell storm mode with anything that develops across this region. A conditional threat for mainly large hail may exist with this activity. However, a Level 1/MRGL threat appears sufficient given storm coverage uncertainties farther from the upper-level forcing. ..Bentley.. 11/05/2025
