SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MIDDLE TN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Friday midday to evening, from the central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. A mesoscale corridor of more concentrated severe hail potential is forecast across Middle Tennessee and south-central Kentucky. ...Synopsis... A positively-tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Within this broader trough, a northern jet streak/trough will move through the northern Great Lakes with a southern stream in the Lower Ohio Valley. A surface low will deepen slowly through the period across the northern Great Lakes, ahead of the mid-level jet streak. A cold front will extend from this surface low to the Ozarks Friday morning and move quickly east through the day. ...TN/KY... Low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the cold front on Friday morning with 60F dewpoints potentially as far north as southern Kentucky. The northern extent of the 60F dewpoints will likely represent the northern extent of 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE and better surface-based storm threat. A narrow corridor exists across KY/TN where cooling mid-level temperatures will steepen lapse rates sufficiently in a region which also is under the influence of relatively strong low-mid level flow. A stronger supercell or two may develop within this region during the afternoon/early evening. ...MS/AL... Greater instability is forecast across central/southern MS/AL where upper 60s dewpoints and a mean mixing ratio of 13 to 14 g/kg is forecast. Given the uncapped airmass and weak height falls across the region, isolated to widely scattered storms are likely during the afternoon/evening. Shear should be sufficient for storm organization with any stronger updrafts that develop. However, warm temperatures aloft/weak lapse rates will likely limit more robust storm development. Therefore, expect any severe weather threat to remain marginal/isolated. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2025
