SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Thu Nov 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly on Saturday evening/night, across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will encompass the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS on Saturday morning. A cold front will stall across the Deep South and become a stationary front during the day. A positively-tilted mid-level trough and associated jet streak will move quickly through the Plains and to the Lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday night. ...Deep South... Some convection may be ongoing along the stalled frontal zone at the beginning of the period. Warm mid-level temperatures should limit the overall intensity of these storms, but long-straight hodographs may support some organization and an isolated threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts. The lack of strong convergence along the front, and mostly neutral height tendencies aloft should keep convective coverage limited during the day Saturday. However, by Saturday night, as the mid-level trough digs into the southern Plains, and a deepening cyclone develops in the Lower Ohio Valley, forcing along the cold front should support increased thunderstorm activity. The timing of this threat (likely after 00Z) is not favorable for widespread severe storms. However, the increasing forcing amid moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and increasing shear may support some large hail/damaging wind gusts. Additional storms may develop Saturday evening/night across Georgia and South Carolina as a low-level jet strengthens east of the Appalachians. This will result in isentropic ascent within a region of weak to moderate instability and moderate deep-layer shear. A few elevated thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail will be the primary threat Saturday evening/overnight. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2025
