SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon and evening across parts of northern Georgia and the Carolinas. Localized severe storms may also develop tonight across parts of the lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level vorticity maximum over SD this morning, and this feature will move to western OH by early Sunday morning. A large-scale trough with an associated belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will envelope the area east of the Rockies. In the low levels, a cold front extends from the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the southern Appalachians and becoming more diffuse with south extent. As a cyclone develops eastward from MO this afternoon to the upper OH Valley late tonight, the diffuse portion of the front will advance northward as a warm frontal zone across the Carolinas. ...Northern GA and the Carolinas... Previous forecast thinking of weak surface reflection appears plausible near/immediately east of the southern Appalachians tonight. The proximity to a moisture-rich airmass (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) over southern-central GA and southern SC lends some concern for stronger thunderstorm development late today through this evening. Although forcing for ascent will be weak, persistent warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary mechanism for isolated to widely scattered storm chances. Mid-level lapse rates will likely remain tempered and overall buoyancy being weak, but forecast hodographs are quite favorable for storm organization (i.e., supercell wind profile). Will maintain a level-1 (Marginal) categorical risk for all hazards this outlook update. ...OH Valley... The aforementioned mid-level impulse and associated DCVA will overspread scant low-level moisture across the OH Valley. Intense forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will support a linear cluster of weak, primarily elevated convection. However, a few strong to locally severe gusts may accompany this activity as it tracks eastward in tandem with the eastward-developing cyclone overnight. ..Smith/Leitman.. 11/08/2025
