SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FL/SOUTH GA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday afternoon into the evening along the South Atlantic Coastal Plain from central Florida to southeast Virginia. Damaging winds and hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... Further amplification of an already deep upper-level trough is expected over the eastern CONUS on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will move across the Lower Great Lakes region during the day, while a reinforcing shortwave trough will dig southward near the Upper Great Lakes. The primary surface low will accompany the leading shortwave and move from the eastern Ohio Valley into the Northeast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. ...Central FL into Southeast VA... Modest destabilization (with MLCAPE of generally 500-1000 J/kg) is expected along/ahead of the front Sunday afternoon from parts of GA and the FL Peninsula into the southern Mid Atlantic. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but guidance continues to be relatively sparse with storm coverage across the warm sector, likely due to the stronger large-scale ascent being displaced to the west/north of the region. Any storms that can be sustained within the prefrontal environment could pose a threat for isolated hail and damaging wind. The strongest relative signal for organized storm development is from south GA into north FL during the afternoon and early evening, but confidence is too low to introduce greater probabilities at this time. ...OH/PA/WV vicinity... Relatively low-topped convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning across eastern OH, associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Guidance generally suggests some weakening with this activity prior to the start of the period (12Z), but locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out through the morning as this convection moves into parts of WV and western PA. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, low-topped convection may persist into parts of western/central NY, and potentially develop southward across western/central PA during the afternoon. Guidance generally depicts MUCAPE in the 100-200 J/kg range in the presence of moderate low-level flow (generally 25-35 kt at 850 mb), which would likely be insufficient to support an organized severe threat. However, if heating/destabilization is stronger than currently anticipated, then convection with locally gusty/damaging winds and transient low-level rotation could not be ruled out. ..Dean.. 11/08/2025
