SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening from Florida northeastward into the coastal Carolinas. ...FL into the coastal Carolinas... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates significant amplification of the large-scale eastern U.S. trough is occurring, and is due primarily to a mid-level wave over the Mid South and an upstream disturbance over the Upper Great Lakes. A cyclone over the upper OH Valley will migrate east towards Long Island during the period as an attendant cold front sweeps east/southeast across the Southeast and Gulf of America. The airmass ahead of the front over the Carolina coastal plain into FL will gradually warm/destabilize and yield upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show effective shear magnitudes supporting organized storms. However, tempered lapse rates (900-600 mb layer) in combination with front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear and limited forcing for ascent ahead of the cold front, will act to partially suppress greater storm coverage and the overall severe risk given the magnitude of CAPE/shear. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of the front (perhaps into one or two small clusters over the FL Peninsula into southern GA) as it progresses across the region. A few damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any bowing structures that stay ahead of the front. Isolated hail is possible as well, primarily in the FL/GA border vicinity where buoyancy is greatest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 11/09/2025
