SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated thunderstorms may persist this afternoon into early evening across parts of the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest amid weak large-scale ascent associated with modest low-level warm advection and multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations spreading northeastward across these regions. Occasional convective development reaching sufficient levels for charge separation and lightning generation may also occur this afternoon across parts of south FL and the Keys, although mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain very poor. Finally, isolated lighting flashes appear possible with low-topped thunderstorms in close proximity to an upper low off the coast of WA and British Columbia, although this activity should primarily affect only coastal WA and adjacent offshore waters. For all areas of thunderstorm potential today, weak instability and/or shear are expected to preclude organized severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/01/2025
