SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for severe storms appears low for Friday. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West while upper-ridging remains in place east of the Rockies on Friday. The eastward advancement of the upper trough will encourage the deepening of a surface low across the northern Plains, with low-level moisture return anticipated across the Gulf Coast states to the Upper MS Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies given strong forcing for ascent amid marginal buoyancy. Across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley, near the international border, isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the surface low along a warm front. Across both the Interior West and Upper MS Valley, a few strong thunderstorms are possible. ...Great Basin into the Northern Rockies... Strong vertical wind shear is expected to overspread the Great Basin into the northern Rockies ahead of the upper trough, resulting in enlarged, curved hodographs. MLCAPE should remain generally under 500 J/kg, constricted to thin profiles above a mixed boundary layer extending up to 600 mb. As such, the threat for organized severe appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. However, given strong vertical wind shear and the mixed boundary layer, organized storm structures may produce at least some sub-severe wind gusts/hail. ...Northern Plains into the Upper-Mississippi Valley... Ahead of the surface low and along the warm front, considerable veering and strengthening of the winds with height will yield enlarged, curved hodographs with some elongation. Furthermore, 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. However, questions remain regarding the degree of forcing to support thunderstorms, with the upper trough remaining well to the west. Furthermore, low-level moisture should remain mediocre, with surface dewpoints barely reaching 60 F. At the moment, the amount of forcing and low-level moisture appears too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 10/01/2025
