SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update. The General Thunderstorm area on the east coast of FL was expanded slightly northward, given the potential for overnight convection amid strengthening coastal convergence and sufficient buoyancy. The General Thunderstorm area was removed over the northern High Plains in the wake of a weakening low-topped convective band. Farther west, transient rotation has been noted with shallow updrafts off the WA coast, aided by enhanced low-level hodograph curvature (see LGX VWP). However, weak buoyancy over coastal areas should keep any severe risk offshore. ..Weinman.. 10/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated thunderstorms may persist this afternoon into early evening across parts of the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest amid weak large-scale ascent associated with modest low-level warm advection and multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations spreading northeastward across these regions. Occasional convective development reaching sufficient levels for charge separation and lightning generation may also occur this afternoon across parts of south FL and the Keys, although mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain very poor. Finally, isolated lighting flashes appear possible with low-topped thunderstorms in close proximity to an upper low off the coast of WA and British Columbia, although this activity should primarily affect only coastal WA and adjacent offshore waters. For all areas of thunderstorm potential today, weak instability and/or shear are expected to preclude organized severe thunderstorms.
