SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty winds the main threats. ...Southern/Central Arizona... A shortwave trough will continue ejecting northeastward across the northern Plains today, as large-scale upper troughing persists over much of the western CONUS. A reservoir of greater low-level moisture will remain confined to parts of southern/central AZ, where mid 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints are present across lower elevations. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain fairly modest, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop this afternoon with filtered daytime heating. Weak low-level winds will strengthen with height at mid/upper-levels, supporting around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. While large-scale ascent is forecast to remain fairly nebulous, most guidance still suggests scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across this region and spread generally east-northeastward through the early evening. With favorable shear in place for some updraft organization, some of these thunderstorms could pose an isolated threat for marginally severe hail and/or gusty winds. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/12/2025
