SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty winds possible. ...Southern/Central Arizona... The region will continue to be peripherally influenced by a lead trough shifting east-northeastward from the northern/central Rockies toward the northern Plains, and a moist environment with middle 60s to lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Scattered semi-repetitive showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across south-central Arizona at late morning/midday including near the Phoenix Metro vicinity. This may limit diurnal destabilization some especially with northward extent, but the precipitation could abate some as forcing for ascent modestly weakens this afternoon, before additional late-day redevelopment/re-intensification occurs within a moist and weakly capped/destabilizing air mass. Regardless, relatively strong mid/high-level winds will support some sustained multicells, with some hail/gusty winds possible with the strongest storms this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Moore.. 10/12/2025
