SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be possible today across parts of the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across the central High Plains with this update. Within broad upper-level troughing encompassing much of the western CONUS, a mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward today from the central Rockies to the northern Plains. The primary surface low associated with this feature will likewise develop northward across the Dakotas through the day, eventually reaching the ND/MB border late tonight. A cold front will continue advancing east-southeastward over the northern/central Plains, with surface lee troughing extending southward from this front over the central High Plains of eastern CO/western KS and vicinity. Secondary surface low development is also forecast across this area. Low-level moisture ahead of the lee trough/cold front will likely remain rather limited. But, generally 50s surface dewpoints should be present in a narrow corridor by late afternoon/early evening across parts of western/central NE into eastern CO/western KS along/near the front. Daytime heating of this airmass should support weak destabilization and eventual thunderstorm development as MLCIN gradually erodes. A modest uptick in a southerly low-level jet may also aid thunderstorm development through the evening. Any convection which forms along the front may become supercellular given around 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear forecast. But, this activity should be undercut fairly quickly by the cold front and become elevated. Isolated large hail appears to be the main threat, but an occasional severe gust may also occur with any thunderstorms that can remain surface based. A brief window may also exist early this evening for a tornado as low-level shear increases, before convection becomes mainly elevated. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/16/2025
