SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast across New England on Monday. At the same time, a surface low will develop east across Quebec with a trailing surface front moving across New England. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning along the front within a warm advection regime. Southeasterly low-level flow will support a narrow warm sector across the region, though instability will remain muted given poor lapse rates. Still, strong mid/upper flow could foster gusty winds as the front moves across New England through early afternoon, though severe potential will remain low. Additional thunderstorms will be possible further south across FL where the southern extent of the New England surface front will arc southwestward across the FL Peninsula. A moist boundary layer and modest instability may support isolated thunderstorms during peak heating, but weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Further west, another upper trough will move across the Plains to the MS Valley. In tandem with the upper system, a surface front will sweep across the Plains into the Midwest. Given a prior cold front passage, the airmass will remain dry and thunderstorm activity along the front will be limited. Cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a lightning flash or two across the Upper Midwest or Great Lakes vicinity, but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 10/19/2025
