Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of the strong upper low over the eastern US, thunderstorm chances will be temporarily muted across the central and eastern US with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting available instability. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late D4/Wed over parts of the Southwest ahead of a southern stream shortwave trough moving onshore from the eastern Pacific. However, moisture and buoyancy should be quite sparse, suggesting only isolated coverage and negligible severe risk. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley D5-D8... The shortwave trough over the Southwest is forecast to move into the southern Plains as high pressure over the eastern US settles along the Gulf Coast. As the trough crosses the Rockies, a lee low should develop, allowing for modest low-level moisture return over parts of the lower MS Valley and southern Plains. Cooling mid-level temperatures and moistening of the airmass over TX/OK should support increasing thunderstorm chances through the end of the week, with thunderstorm potential extending into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley next weekend. Some severe potential is apparent as westerly flow aloft increases amidst the returning moisture/instability. However, details such as the degree of destabilization, timing/structure of the upper trough, and the potential for organized storms remains highly uncertain. 15% severe probabilities could be introduced in future outlook cycles should confidence in organized severe potential increase.
