SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Thu Oct 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A relatively stagnant upper pattern persists across the nation today, with a broad ridge across most of the central/eastern US. Upper troughs will affect the northwest and northeast states. A few areas will have at least low risk of thunderstorms today. ...Great Basin into Northern Rockies... As the upper trough continues to slowly build into the western states, sufficient low/midlevel moisture will be present along and ahead of a cold front to yield marginal CAPE values (generally below 1000 J/kg). Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon along a corridor from central CA into western MT. Weak instability and weak low-level winds should preclude severe storms. ...MN/WI/MI... A weak cold front will sag southward into the Lake Superior region later today, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show modest lapse rates and MLCAPE values of around 500 J/kg. Shear profiles would support a conditional risk of organized storms, but weak moisture/instability should preclude severe storms. ...Elsewhere... Elsewhere, scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected in a moist environment across the lower/mid MS Valley, and over parts of FL. ..Hart/Dean.. 10/02/2025
