SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Oct 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor across parts of the northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon or evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will become established across the Rockies, with upper ridging expected along the East Coast on Saturday. A pronounced mid-level impulse will eject into the northern Plains, supporting rapid surface low deepening over the Dakotas by afternoon. Seasonal low-level moisture return beneath cooler temperatures aloft, in tandem with favorable vertical wind shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms across the northern Plains Saturday evening, at least a few of which may be severe. ...Northern Plains... A surface low will become established across the Dakotas during the afternoon, with a cold front draped across the central/northern High Plains. Ahead of the cold front, surface temperatures should reach the 80s F amid low 60s F dewpoints by afternoon peak heating. 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (locally higher in some spots) is expected given 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading the northern Plains. Modest to substantial convective inhibition will likely inhibit thunderstorm development over the warm sector through much of the day. As such, thunderstorms will develop along and perhaps behind an eastward advancing surface cold front by sunset, when the primary mid-level impulse ejects from the Rockies. As this occurs, substantial veering and strengthening of the vertical wind profile is expected, with 50+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading a 30-50 kt southerly low-level jet. 50 kts of effective bulk shear, mainly parallel to the cold front, will support linear convection, with at least isolated severe gusts possible. An instance or two of severe hail may accompany any more discrete storms that manage to develop. ..Squitieri.. 10/02/2025
