SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Low-topped convection, with minimal to no lightning flashes, may produce isolated strong-damaging gusts, and possibly a brief/weak tornado across the Mid-Atlantic tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a strong upper trough advancing across the OH/TN Valley region. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across NC to near the southern NJ coast by 20/12z as 180dm height falls overspread the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Strongly forced convective line is currently observed along the cold front, arcing from central PA-central VA-western NC. This line will surge off the Mid-Atlantic coast after midnight along with the risk for gusty winds. 00z sounding from IAD exhibited modest 0-3km lapse rates, but negligible instability and a strongly sheared environment. Lightning may struggle to develop with this low-topped convection, but some risk for damaging winds remains, along with perhaps a brief/weak tornado. ..Darrow.. 10/20/2025
