SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible, centered on west to central Texas, from mid-afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A pair of impulses, embedded within a positive-tilt shortwave trough from southwest CO to the northern Gulf of CA, should gradually move east and become centered over the southern High Plains by early Saturday. An upper-level jetlet attendant to the basal impulse will shift across northern Mexico, supporting strengthening large-scale ascent across west TX on Friday evening/night. ...TX vicinity... Scattered to widespread elevated convection will be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Red River Valley into KS, with more isolated/diminishing activity trailing southwestward into parts of west TX. This early-day activity will aid in reinforcing the surface baroclinic zone near the Red River. Adequate boundary-layer heating will occur to its south through west, fostering a broad plume of moderate buoyancy after another day of low-level moisture enrichment. Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid to late afternoon along the western extent of this plume from the TX Panhandle towards the Pecos Valley/Trans-Pecos. This activity will become increasingly widespread during the evening into Friday night as the aforementioned large-scale ascent strengthens. The most probable corridor for supercells with large hail appears to be across the southern portion of west TX where moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear are anticipated. Multiple convectively parameterized models along with available CAMs strongly suggest upscale growth into a large MCS should occur across the Edwards Plateau to Big Country vicinity on Friday night. This should support at least an isolated/marginal severe wind/hail threat persisting into the early morning Saturday towards central TX. ..Grams.. 10/22/2025
