SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the southern Great Plains tonight. ...01z Update... Only minor changes are warranted to severe probabilities across the southern Great Plains tonight. Otherwise, earlier thoughts regarding the evolution of convection remain. Southern stream short-wave trough is advancing across the Four Corners region into the southern Rockies early this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well with the leading edge of large-scale forcing now spreading into the southern High Plains region. Well ahead of the short wave, remnants of a weak midlevel vort are located just northwest of OKC, shifting east. Strong-severe convection is evolving ahead of this feature along a corridor of modest lapse rates/buoyancy. 00z sounding from OKC exhibited around 1700 J/kg MLCAPE with wind profiles favoring supercells. Southwest-northeast surface boundary will likely serve as the focus for severe storms tonight. This boundary should remain draped from west TX into southern OK and low-level warm advection is expected to aid ongoing activity, and new development through 12z. 00z sounding from MAF was negligibly inhibited with very steep lapse rates and modest instability. With LLJ expected to increase across west TX into the Panhandle, a prolonged convective event is expected along/north of the wind shift. Hail should be the primary concern, through wind, and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible. ..Darrow.. 10/24/2025
