SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0718 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST...NORTHWEST...AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas mainly this afternoon through this evening. Large hail, severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible. ...Texas... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low near the San Juan Mountains in southwestern CO. This upper feature is forecast to slowly migrate southeastward to the TX South Plains by daybreak Saturday. A belt of moderately strong southwesterly 500-mb flow will extend through the base of the trough over Chihuahua east-northeastward through west and central TX. Morning surface analysis places a frontal zone draped from the mouth of the Sabine River (TX-LA border) northwestward through north TX and northward through western OK. An ill-defined cold front extends from southwest KS southwestward bisecting NM. The northwestern rim of richer moisture (upper 50s to lower 60s degree F surface dewpoints) arcs from southwestern TX through the TX South Plains and into the eastern TX Panhandle. Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms ongoing this morning are in association with a broad, low-level warm/moist advection zone via a 40 kt 850-mb LLJ centered over northwest TX. The LLJ is progged to gradually weaken during the period and shift slowly east while a low-level warm-air advection regime persists through the period. A somewhat nebulous boundary (best characterized as a weak wind shift/northern moisture gradient) will probably serve as a focus for strong/severe storm activity expected to develop later today. Some modest heating in wake of early showers will lead to a destabilizing airmass by afternoon, despite rather extensive mid- to high-level cloud cover. A gradual development of scattered to numerous storms will likely occur this afternoon into the evening coincident with diurnal destabilization. Similar to prior forecast thinking, strengthening wind profiles favor supercells, but storm mode will likely be complex with storm mergers and one or more MCSs likely, but specific details in terms of potential mesoscale corridors for severe remain unclear at this time. All hazards are possible with supercells, but wind will be more common with linear activity. Convection should easily advance beyond the I-35 corridor, possibly approaching the coastal plain of TX by early Saturday morning. ..Smith/Weinman.. 10/24/2025
