SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through Sunday morning over the central Gulf Coast. A second round of strong storms is possible by Sunday afternoon, though the severe threat appears more conditional. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to traverse the Gulf Coast while a broader upper trough continues to overspread the Interior West on Sunday. Surface troughing will promote continued low-level warm-air/moisture advection ahead of ongoing thunderstorms over the Lower MS Valley Sunday morning into afternoon, where adequate vertical wind shear will support an isolated severe threat. ...Lower MS Valley... A cluster or loosely organized line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period (i.e. 12Z Sunday), preceded by mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath a departing 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg amid 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and modestly sized/curved low-level hodographs (around 200 m2/s2 effective SRH) will precede the ongoing storms, supporting an isolated severe gust/tornado threat through Sunday morning, warranting Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. Some airmass modification of the free warm sector is possible behind the initial round of storms Sunday afternoon, particularly from central MS into far eastern LA. Should diurnal heating become abundant (which is highly questionable at the moment), relatively robust initiation of new convection is possible. Even so, the departing low-level jet to the east suggests that any materializing severe threat will likely be isolated, with a couple of severe gusts being the main threat, though a tornado cannot be ruled out with the afternoon storms. ..Squitieri.. 10/24/2025
