SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with isolated severe are possible Sunday over the central Gulf Coast, with areas of damaging gusts or a brief tornado possible. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will move eastward across the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states on Sunday, bringing cooling aloft as well as 35-45 kt midlevel winds. A weak surface low is forecast from LA into southern MS during the day, with a warm front draped southeastward across southern MS/AL and into the FL Panhandle. Given a substantial surface high affecting much of the eastern CONUS, the warm front will make little progress northward, with drier/more stable air remaining over GA/northern FL/AL with easterly surface winds. However, a small warm sector with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a cold front/east of the surface low in LA, and into southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle late. Substantial clouds and precipitation will be ongoing Sunday morning, which will limit heating. Forecast soundings indicate near-saturated profiles in the lowest 2 km. Still, 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will be present which will support strong to locally severe storms. The large amount of storms will likely produce gusty to locally damaging gusts, and may overturn much of the warm sector by afternoon. Otherwise, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with storms as they briefly interact with the warm front before crossing into more stable air. ..Jewell.. 10/25/2025
