SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today along portions of the central Gulf Coast. The primary hazards are a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts. A risk for a few stronger storms may linger tonight near the coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... IR satellite and lightning data this morning show a linear cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms extending northward from the continental shelf waters northward into southeast LA and southern MS. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows the thunderstorm activity is located within a low-level warm conveyor to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level cyclone over OK. Surface observations at 12 UTC this morning show the northward extent of rich low-level moisture (i.e., 68-72 deg F dewpoints) is confined south of a maritime warm front that is draped west-northwest near the LA/MS border to the east-southeast and to the south of the FL Panhandle. A persistent fetch of southerly low-level confluent flow off the Gulf will maintain adequate buoyancy despite the presence of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Enlarged hodographs and moist/weakly buoyant profiles will support intermittent supercell structure with the stronger updrafts through the morning. An attendant risk for a couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts will likely continue through the morning and perhaps midday hours before a possible waning in storm intensity later today. As the upper system over OK this morning migrates eastward across the Ozarks, a re-invigoration of storm intensity may occur tonight in southern AL into the FL Panhandle. An isolated risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop. Elsewhere across the Lower 48, quiescent conditions for severe thunderstorms will prevail. ..Smith/Weinman.. 10/26/2025
