SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Strong to locally severe convection has moved southeast and offshore from the Apalachicola vicinity, so the Marginal Risk has been removed from this area. Nearly all guidance suggests this activity will weaken as it approaches the west coast of the FL Peninsula this afternoon and moves over cooler shelf waters. Other isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across interior portions of the central FL Peninsula as continued strong diurnal heating occurs over this area along/south of a stalled front. Even though lapse rates aloft will remain modest (reference 12Z observed sounding from TBW), weak low-level flow will veer to west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper levels on the southern periphery of an upper trough over the Southeast. The forecast combination of moderate instability and around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear may support occasional convective organization. Isolated damaging winds appear possible with the stronger cores as low-level lapse rates steepen through the afternoon. These thunderstorms should move eastward and mostly offshore through early evening before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Central High Plains... An upper trough over the Northwest and northern Rockies will amplify as it ejects eastward over the northern/central Plains through the period. Surface lee troughing should deepen this afternoon/evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the central High Plains. However, recent visible satellite imagery and surface observations show limited low-level moisture and broken to widespread low clouds over this region. This should hinder the development of any more than meager buoyancy through the afternoon/evening. Even though some high-resolution guidance shows a stronger thunderstorm or two developing in eastern CO/western KS, the overall thermodynamic environment appears too marginal to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 10/27/2025
