SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX AREA SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Ozarks into southeast Texas coast Tuesday. Small to marginally severe hail may occur from southeast Texas into western Louisiana during the late afternoon. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense midlevel jet will nose into the KS/OK region during the day, with a deepening upper low dropping southeastward into AR. A cold front will extend roughly from the ArkLaTex area southwestward across eastern TX, with a inverted surface trough extending northward across AR and MO where surface temperatures will be cooler. Ahead of the cold front, modest boundary layer heating along with upper 60s/low 70s F dewpoints will lead to MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg. Lapse rates aloft will not be very steep, but favorable lift along the front should instigate a broken line of storms after 21Z from near the AR/LA border southwestward into southeastern TX. Deep-layer shear will be quite strong, especially in the mid to upper levels, and this should favor cellular storm mode. Storms will move quickly east/southeastward, with the stronger cells producing small to perhaps marginally severe hail through early evening from the upper TX Coast into perhaps central LA. ..Jewell.. 10/27/2025
