SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. ...Eastern North Carolina/Southeast Virginia... Pronounced large-scale trough amplification will occur through late tonight and early Thursday over the Eastern States, centered over the Tennessee Valley/Cumberland Plateau. A strong polar jet in association with this trough will develop toward/east of the Appalachians tonight, with steady surface cyclogenesis occurring particularly late tonight toward the central Appalachians/Blue Ridge vicinity, with the 00z ECMWF continuing to exhibit a somewhat stronger surface low as compared to other global guidance. Low-level moistening will occur near the coast late tonight including coastal portions of North Carolina and Outer Banks, northward into southeast Virginia and Delmarva vicinity. Modestly increasing potential for mostly elevated convection/isolated lightning flashes will occur over inland parts of the region, but some near-surface based storms could materialize near the immediate coast, particularly if/where surface dewpoints approach 60 F late tonight and early Thursday. Limited buoyancy even for near-coastal areas should limit the overall magnitude/likelihood of the severe storm potential. However, a couple of locally severe storms could materialize in the presence of supercell-supportive deep-layer shear (effective magnitudes 45+ kt) and moderately enlarged low-level hodographs, with related potential for localized wind damage and/or a brief tornado. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/29/2025
