SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat of severe storms appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone will move eastward across Canada on Monday, with the southern periphery of the stronger winds aloft from the far northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. South of this feature, a weakening positive-tilt wave will extend into the Great basin, with a belt of moderate southwesterlies aloft from CO into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched across the northern Rockies and Plains, with another strong high affecting much of the eastern states. In between these anticyclones, a relative surface trough and wind shift will extend roughly from northern Lower MI southwestward into KS and toward the TX Panhandle at midday, making minimal eastward progress through Tuesday morning. ...From the southern High Plains into Lower MI... Along the length of the boundary, surface heating along with dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will lead to a marginally unstable environment with SBCAPE averaging 500 to 1000 J/kg, with similar elevated MUCAPE values on the cool side of the boundary. Effective deep-layer shear will generally be at or below 30 kt, with boundary-parallel flow. A few strong storms may develop during the afternoon from northeast NM in to northwest OK where heating will be strong. However, warm profiles aloft suggest minimal hail potential. A few stronger cells with strong gusts may also occur from northern IL into Lower MI, but meager CAPE profiles suggest minimal severe risk. ..Jewell.. 10/05/2025
