SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However, organized severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move across central Canada and the northern Plains today, with an associated surface cold front extending from the western Great Lakes region into the southern Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s in vicinity of the front, coupled with pockets of strong heating, will yield at least marginal CAPE from Lower MI southwestward into NM. This will support the development of multiple clusters of storms along and immediately behind the front. Sufficient low and midlevel wind fields suggest a low-end risk of an afternoon strong storm or two from northeast IL into lower MI, but weak thermodynamics are expected to limit the risk. Other strong storms are possible over east-central NM where steep mid-level lapse rates will be present, but weak low-level winds will limit convective organization. Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight over parts of the southeast states and lower MS Valley, but weak parameters suggest the severe threat is low. ..Hart/Barnes.. 10/06/2025
