SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to marginally severe storms may produce hail over western New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, general thunderstorms are probable from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will sweep eastward across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with the southern periphery of the stronger flow aloft from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. To the west, upper ridging will develop into the Plains, with relatively cool midlevel temperatures with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as Interstate 40. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist across the Plains, behind a cold front that will extend from the Lower Great Lakes into the Lower MS Valley during the day. Weak instability is forecast ahead of this front, with scattered thunderstorms from the Lower Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys. Given the affects of early day clouds/rain, the severe risk should remain limited despite marginal deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Farther west, isolated severe cells capable of hail will be possible during the afternoon, where southeast winds will maintain a moist air mass westward into NM, beneath cool temperatures aloft. ...Central and western NM... Scattered thunderstorms appear likely over much of western NM during afternoon, with strong heating combined with low to midlevel moisture, resulting in MLCAPE perhaps as high as 1000 J/kg. Veering winds with height, and elongated hodographs in the mid to high levels may help support cellular storm mode with a few producing hail over 1.00" diameter. As such, have introduced low hail probabilities for Tuesday afternoon. ..Jewell.. 10/06/2025
