SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However, organized severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. Storm coverage is expected to increase from late afternoon into the evening from the southern High Plains into the central Plains, and across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for a couple strong storms with gusty winds from northern IL into Lower MI, but generally weak buoyancy and lapse rates are still expected to limit the severe threat. Transient storm organization will be possible across parts of south-central/southeast KS and also across eastern NM, but generally weak to modest buoyancy will tend to limit storm intensity. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 10/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move across central Canada and the northern Plains today, with an associated surface cold front extending from the western Great Lakes region into the southern Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s in vicinity of the front, coupled with pockets of strong heating, will yield at least marginal CAPE from Lower MI southwestward into NM. This will support the development of multiple clusters of storms along and immediately behind the front. Sufficient low and midlevel wind fields suggest a low-end risk of an afternoon strong storm or two from northeast IL into lower MI, but weak thermodynamics are expected to limit the risk. Other strong storms are possible over east-central NM where steep mid-level lapse rates will be present, but weak low-level winds will limit convective organization. Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight over parts of the southeast states and lower MS Valley, but weak parameters suggest the severe threat is low.
