SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of central New Mexico. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025/ ...NM... A broad upper trough is present today over much of the CONUS, with the subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. Model guidance and water vapor loop suggest a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over AZ. This feature will provide weak-but-sufficient lift for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon over the higher terrain of central NM. Forecast soundings suggest steep low/mid-level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. This will support a risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours from the strongest cells. ...Elsewhere... Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the period across much of the US to the east of the MS River. Widespread cloudiness, weak lapse rates, and weak forcing mechanisms should limit the risk of severe storms.
