SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Nocturnal cooling has weakened low-level lapse rates across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies early this evening. 00z soundings from coastal Middle Atlantic support this, but PW values remain seasonally high with several hundred J/kg MLCAPE observed at MHX. The most robust updrafts may continue to generate lightning at times, but organized severe is not anticipated. Farther west, modest southwesterly midlevel flow persists across northern Mexico into eastern AZ ahead of lower CO River Valley low. TUS sounding exhibited around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with steep lapse rates through 4km. Occasional lightning will continue to be observed across much of the southwestern U.S. ahead of this upper trough but severe is not anticipated. ..Darrow.. 09/28/2025
