SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic hail and/or a severe wind gust remain possible over parts of the Southwest this evening, though the threat is gradually decreasing. ...NM into West TX... Evening water vapor imagery showed a remnant upper low gradually weakening over portions of the Desert Southwest to the west of an expansive ridge across the central and eastern CONUS. Ascent from the low overspreading a fairly moist air mass across eastern NM and west TX has resulted in several rounds of scattered strong to occasionally severe storms earlier this afternoon. Convection remains ongoing as of 01z ahead of the upper low, but has started to gradually wane as the broad and weakly unstable air mass has begun overturning as evidence by the 00z EPZ RAOB. A deepening surface cold pool from consolidating outflow over portions of southern NM and West TX, and the loss of diurnal heating should continue the cooling of the boundary layer and weakening instability trend through the remainder of this evening. Lingering surface-based buoyancy of ~500 J/kg on a localized basis may continue to support an occasional stronger storm through the early evening given continued 35-45 kt of effective shear. Some sporadic hail and/or an occasional severe gust cannot be ruled out with any stronger cores able to persist. However, this appears increasingly unlikely as upper-level ascent associated with the upper low is forecast to weaken and the cooling of the boundary layer continues tonight. ..Lyons.. 09/29/2025
