MD 1039 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024
Areas affected…central into southeast TX
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 281549Z – 281745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Storms may develop along residual outflow across central
into southeast Texas from late morning into the afternoon.
Severe/damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. A watch will
likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION…Convection is starting to develop near/just behind
outflow across central Texas. While outflow may continue to sag
southward, a very moist airmass remains in place with surface
dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F. Strong heating and midlevel lapse
rates around 8-8.5 C/km within this moist environment is resulting
in strong destabilization (MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg). Any storms
that develop within this airmass will likely become severe, posing a
risk of large hail and severe gusts. If clustering occurs, a line of
severe storms may develop southeast from the Edwards Plateau toward
the Upper Texas Coast later this afternoon. A watch will likely be
needed for portions of the region soon.
..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LCH…SHV…HGX…FWD…EWX…SJT…
LAT…LON 30519909 30769888 31059830 31229733 31109402 30839358
30209367 29939375 29609436 29359492 29309566 29319726
29359789 29439833 29509868 29629891 29959906 30189910
30519909
