MD 1040 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024
Areas affected…southwest to south-central Louisiana
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 281701Z – 281830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Strong to severe thunderstorms may persist southeast
across southwest and south-central Louisiana this afternoon.
Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity. A severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed soon.
DISCUSSION…A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing
near the TX/LA border at midday may persist southeast through the
afternoon along a surface boundary. A very moist (mid 70s to near 80
F dewpoints) boundary-layer exists across the area beneath very
steep midlevel lapse rates (8 C/km) and strong vertical shear (40+
kt effective shear). While this cluster of storms is less intense
compared to early in the morning, the downstream environment remains
favorable for organized severe. A severe thunderstorm watch may be
needed soon if current trends persist/intensify.
..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LIX…LCH…SHV…
LAT…LON 31489379 31379292 30769175 30309103 29909068 29389075
29159135 29369264 29629367 29879397 30889413 31489379
