MD 1179 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN MD…NORTHERN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 1179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024
Areas affected…far northeastern MD…northern DE and southern NJ
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 060217Z – 060315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…The ongoing cluster of storms near the MD/DE border may
continue east with the risk for an isolated tornado or damaging gust
this evening.
DISCUSSION…As of 0210 UTC regional radar analysis showed a cluster
of low topped storms near the MD/DE border. Thee storms have
retained transient supercell characteristics near a subtle warm
frontal zone across northern DelMarVa. Ahead of these storms, SPC
mesoanalysis shows around 500-1000 J/kg of residual MUCAPE
sufficient for continued updraft maintenance. Low-level shear
remains favorable for some storm-scale rotation with KDOX VAD
showing 0-1km SRH of 250-300 m2/s2. While storms have shown less
intensity with time, the environment ahead of them remains
conditionally favorable for a brief tornado or isolated damaging
gusts for a couple more hours this evening. The exact eastward
extent of the severe risk is uncertain as nocturnal stabilization
has begun with the loss of diurnal heating. However, a very moist
low-level environment (dewpoints in the 70s F) may slow
stabilization and allow storms to remain near surface-based into
parts of eastern DE and southern NJ.
..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/06/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…PHI…LWX…
LAT…LON 39137579 39227615 39357629 39507623 39647603 39717568
39747525 39667496 39567474 39457464 39287476 39107488
39067499 39057509 39077543 39137579
