MD 1297 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN IA AND WEST-CENTRAL WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Areas affected…southern MN into northern IA and west-central WI
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 170755Z – 170930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated large hail and strong/severe wind gusts 50-65 mph
possible through early morning. A severe thunderstorm watch is being
considered.
DISCUSSION…A cluster of thunderstorms has become better organized
near the southwest MN/northwest IA border over the past hour. This
activity is occurring closer to a surface boundary and on the nose
of a 35 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Sufficient instability,
steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective shear magnitudes greater
than 35 kt will support strong to severe thunderstorms into early
morning. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon to
address this increasing severe risk.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/17/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ARX…MPX…DMX…FSD…
LAT…LON 42969651 43779631 44399567 44579518 45239266 45069112
44449065 43799085 43289164 42839330 42609495 42619622
42969651
