MD 1474 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Areas affected…eastern Upper Peninsula into northern Lower MI
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 291814Z – 291945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated thunderstorms may produce gusty winds of 40-60
mph and a couple instances of hail to near 1 inch diameter through
the afternoon. A watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION…Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low/triple point across the eastern U.P into northern Lower
MI through the afternoon. A moist airmass with surface dewpoints in
the upper 60s F and heating into the mid/upper 70s is contributing
to weak destabilization amid strong vertical shear. Midlevel lapse
rates will remain poor, but sufficient instability and shear may
support a few briefly strong/severe cells capable of mainly gusty
winds and marginally severe hail. A severe thunderstorm watch is not
expected.
..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/29/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…APX…GRR…MQT…GRB…
LAT…LON 45218755 46148725 46718656 46848509 46288427 45318381
44518428 43948524 44058613 44138661 45218755
