MD 1647 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024
Areas affected…North-central Kansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 160838Z – 161115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…An isolated wind-damage threat will likely continue over
the next couple of hours across north-central Kansas. Although the
threat should remain localized, weather watch issuance still could
be needed if the cluster maintains intensity and expands in
coverage.
DISCUSSION…The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Dodge City
shows a small convective cluster over north-central Kansas, just
west and northwest of Russell, Kansas. This cluster is located to
the west of a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP has
MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The storm cluster appears to
be supported by a subtle shortwave trough moving through
west-northwesterly mid-level flow. In addition to the instability,
the RAP is showing 200 to 300 J/kg of MLCIN. This introduces
uncertainty as to how long the cluster can persist, and how much
wind can reach the surface. If the storms expand in coverage and
remain at a similar intensity, as they move eastward across
north-central Kansas early this morning, then weather watch issuance
will need to be considered.
..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/16/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TOP…ICT…GID…DDC…
LAT…LON 39519629 39789641 39949667 39979701 39839784 39469893
39119956 38769970 38509960 38319926 38359840 38589750
38799686 39099635 39519629
