MD 1716 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST CO…FAR SOUTHEAST WY…NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Areas affected…Northeast CO…Far Southeast WY…NE Panhandle
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 272116Z – 272315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph
are possible from southeast Wyoming and northeast CO into the
Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION…A few deeper updrafts have recently developed across
extreme southeast WY and the southwestern NE Panhandle over the past
half hour or so. These deeper updrafts are developing in an area of
modest buoyancy, increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, and
persistent low-level convergence. The deeply mixed boundary layer in
place will support an outflow-dominant storm mode, with the area of
convergence downstream northeastward into the northern NE Panhandle
and south-central SD potentially acting as a favored corridor for
propagation. Damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph are the primary severe
hazard with these storms.
Farther west, thunderstorms continue to develop over the higher
terrain, with the enhanced mid-level flow taking these storms
eastward into the deeply mixed boundary layer downstream. Vertical
shear is modest, with a predominantly multicellular,
outflow-dominant mode anticipated. Damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph
are the primary severe hazard with these storms as well.
..Mosier/Hart.. 07/27/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LBF…GLD…PUB…BOU…CYS…
LAT…LON 38730373 40290531 41920612 42980330 42480154 40020227
38730373
