MD 1812 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COASTAL WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1812
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024
Areas affected…Coastal west-central/southwest FL Peninsula
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 041147Z – 041315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A brief tornado or two is possible into late morning with
an outer band of showers gradually advancing north from the
southwest to west-central Florida Gulf Coast, in association with TS
Debby.
DISCUSSION…A persistent arc of moderate-topped showers from
western Collier to Sarasota counties has had transient but largely
weak attempts at low-level rotation. This arc is within a corridor
for enhanced low-level SRH, around 200-250 m2/s2, per time-series of
TBW VWP data. Diminishing hodograph curvature exists to its south
per BYX VWP data, where low-level and surface winds are nearly
unidirectional from the south. The overall threat will likely remain
spatially confined and limited in potential intensity beyond a weak,
brief tornado or two. Greater potential for rotating cells across a
broader area of the central peninsula may become evident towards
midday.
..Grams/Edwards.. 08/04/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…TBW…
LAT…LON 28038284 28018246 27308166 26808148 26448156 26278172
26348178 26408194 26978220 27248268 27498283 27848298
28038284
