MD 1931 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO NORTH-CENTRAL UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1931
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024
Areas affected…northwest Arizona to north-central Utah
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 171752Z – 171945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Severe wind gusts are possible with high-based storms this
afternoon and evening from northwest Arizona to north-central Utah.
DISCUSSION…Numerous elevated thunderstorms developed earlier this
morning on the leading edge of a northward surge of monsoon
moisture. In the wake of this convection, clear skies have allowed
for sufficient surface heating which, when combined with the
increasing low-level moisture, has resulted in moderate
destabilization. SPC mesoanalysis suggests inhibition has mostly
eroded. Therefore, surface-based storms, with likely a greater
severe wind threat, are possible within the next 1 to 2 hours as
further warming/moistening occurs. An environment this afternoon
featuring high-based storms and a deeply-mixed boundary layer with
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-30 knots of effective shear should
support some threat for severe wind gusts. With multiple rounds of
storms possible, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to
address this threat.
..Bentley/Hart.. 08/17/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FGZ…SLC…VEF…
LAT…LON 36591423 38751377 39551345 40181302 40531196 40271123
38711119 37291165 36821196 35861252 35711307 36181375
36591423
