MD 2323 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
Areas affected...southeastern Virginia into the Delmarva Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 312104Z - 312300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A developing cluster of thunderstorms may continue to pose
a risk for small hail and perhaps increasing potential for scattered
surface gusts approaching severe limits through 6-7 PM EST.
DISCUSSION...Despite rather limited destabilization (including
mixed-layer CAPE generally on the order of 250 J/kg), forcing for
ascent, near a weak developing low within surface troughing to the
lee of the Blue Ridge, has provided support for a developing
quasi-linear cluster of thunderstorms east-south of the
Charlottesville and Lynchburg vicinities. Shear through the
relatively shallow convective layer is strong and contributing
convective organization, with sufficient low-level moistening and
mid-level cooling to provide support for small to perhaps marginally
severe hail in the stronger updrafts.
As activity develops east-northeastward with the forcing for ascent
during the next few hours, it is possible that modest boundary-layer
temperature and dew point spreads will contribute to sufficient
sub-cloud evaporative cooling and melting to support a gradual
increase in potential for strong surface gusts. Given ambient mean
flow in the lowest 3 km or so above ground level on the order of
35-40 kt, a couple of gusts may approach or briefly exceed severe
limits.
..Kerr/Hart.. 12/31/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37657834 38987668 38817532 37397668 36687753 36917872
37657834
