MD 2030 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE…ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2030 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Areas affected...western into central New York State...adjacent northwestern into north central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041444Z - 041645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...One or two developing bands of showers and thunderstorms may pose increasing potential for sporadic wind damage through early afternoon. This currently seems unlikely to require a severe weather watch, but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Boundary layer warming associated with insolation is beginning to contribute to destabilization in a pre-frontal corridor, where the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that mid-level forcing for ascent, associated with a short wave perturbation pivoting through the lower Great Lakes region, may contribute to deepening convective development through 16-18Z. Based on forecast soundings, although mid/upper lapse rates are likely to remain weak, sufficient boundary warming may occur for destabilization through favorably cold levels of the mixed-phase layer to support charge separation and increasing potential for scattered thunderstorm development. It is possible that this activity could gradually consolidate into an increasingly prominent line, which will tend to propagate ahead of the eastward advancing cold front. Although this may maintain a significant component parallel to the 30-40 kt south-southwesterly cloud-bearing layer mean flow, the deepening preceding well-mixed boundary-layer may gradually become increasingly conducive to downward momentum transfer to the surface. Peak gusts probably will tend to remain mostly below severe limits, but sporadic wind damage, particularly to trees, is possible. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 44287528 42367618 41017871 41467913 43617840 44287528 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
