MD 2038 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025
Areas affected...portions of northern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 052322Z - 060115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...At least a few instances of severe wind or hail may
accompany the stronger storms this evening, particularly with any
supercells that can become established.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are intensifying near a surface frontal
boundary draped zonally across northern TX (just north of the
Metroplex). Ahead of these storms resides a buoyant airmass,
characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates over a mixed boundary
layer with 15-20 F temperature/dewpoint spreads. Furthermore,
general veering with height is contributing to elongated and curved
hodographs (albeit with some veer-back-veering within the profiles
per RAP forecast soundings). With 40 kt effective bulk shear values
overlapping with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of ongoing storms,
multicells and supercells are possible, accompanied by both a severe
wind/hail risk. The ongoing storm over Denton County is currently
exhibiting outflow tendencies per KFWS NEXRAD radar imagery, which
will likely help drive the frontal boundary southward. As such, it
is unclear how many storms will be able to cross to the warm side of
the boundary. Overall, the complex mesoscale setup and undercutting
boundaries suggest that the overall severe threat may remain
isolated.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/05/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32429859 32649903 32909921 33139913 33659869 33789812
33739677 33629589 33409549 33099526 32859521 32699538
32429635 32429649 32359777 32429859
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
